2023 March Madness: Who Will Win?
A battle between sports psychology quant facts, numbers, and strength of schedule.
This year’s Men’s NCAA Tournament has truly lived up to the name March Madness. The 2023 Final Four includes #5 seed San Diego State vs. #9 seed Florida Atlantic in one semifinal game and #4 Connecticut (UConn) vs. #5 Miami Florida in the other. It is amazing that there is not a single seed better than a single #4 seed in the Final Four! Who will win this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament?
The research for this article is based on decades’ worth of championship data across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.” What do our sports psychology quant facts say about this year’s Final Four?
Big Game Experience
“Big game experience” is one of the key factors related to winning the big game. Whether this is due to confidence, experience — or the simple fact that getting to the finals again means that your team is not a fluke — the fact remains that big game experience is correlated to winning title games. With all of the upsets, none of the Final Four teams have appeared in the Final Four in recent years. Edge: None.
Consistency — From Long Distance
Today’s college basketball game is heavily impacted by three-point shooting — and the championship factors back this up. The team with a higher three-point shooting percentage has won a large majority of championship games. Miami, Florida Atlantic, and UConn lead the way in this category, with San Diego State lagging a bit. It is notable that the top 3 are separated by a fraction. Edge: Miami, Florida Atlantic, and UConn (in this order).
Mental Toughness, Minimizing Errors & Hard Work
Analysts and sports psychologists highlight mental toughness and the ability to minimize errors. While these intangibles are often hard to measure, research has shown that there is a relationship between winning championships and a focus on the fundamentals. For college basketball, free throw % (FT%) is our championship factor. Free throws can be important in tightly-contested games; teams with a higher FT% during the regular season have won close to two-thirds of championship games. Edge: Miami, UConn, and San Diego State (in this order).
Defense
While basketball fans enjoy improved long-range shooting from three-point territory in both college and professional basketball, the numbers show that defense remains crucial to winning playoff games and championships. History highlights opponent field goal (FG%) as a good defensive measure and championship factor.
In fact, this is the strongest championship factor in college basketball - and we will weight this accordingly. Of the four teams remaining, Florida Atlantic, UConn, and San Diego State are the leaders, in this order. Miami is a distant fourth. Edge: Florida Atlantic, UConn, and San Diego State (in this order).
Strength of Schedule
Our original research did not focus on each team’s strength of schedule. We assumed that by the time a team reached the Final Four, strength of schedule would be a relatively insignificant factor. This year has proven to be one of the wildest tournaments — and we see power ratings tightening up materially due to the results.
This year, we see the Final Four as a battle between our traditional quant facts and strength of schedule. UConn had the toughest schedule — and our predictions will take this into account.
Summary
We applied the quant facts to the semi-final match-ups between San Diego State-Florida Atlantic in Saturday’s early game; and UConn-Miami in the later game. Our championship factors pick Florida Atlantic to advance to the Final. At the time of this writing, Florida Atlantic is a 1.5 point underdog.
In the other game, the story is UConn’s defensive superiority and strength of schedule vs. Miami’s offense. We have no official prediction in this game but note potential value on Miami +5.5 points at the time of this writing. We will update this article once the finalists are determined. Enjoy the games!
UPDATE on 4/2/2023: Our championship factors favor UConn in the final over San Diego State!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer focused on portfolio strategy and data-driven models. Carlton enjoys applying numbers and probabilities to the financial markets and sporting events. He has been quoted by the New York Times, ESPN, and the Wall Street Journal.