Who Will Win the 2023 NBA Finals? A Tale of Two...
The Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat, Quant Facts, and more...
This year’s 2023 NBA Finals is truly a Tale of Two… — well, everything! Even at the beginning of the NBA Playoffs, when LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers started to make a run deep into the playoffs, sports analysts debated about the importance of (or lack, thereof) the regular season. And now, we have the upstart Miami Heat tipping off against West’s best, Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.
The Miami Heat finished the regular season slightly above .500 at 44-38. Miami had just the seventh best record in the NBA’s Eastern Conference, and needed the play-in to secure the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Bracket. Denver had the best record in the West and survived the No. 7 seed Lakers in the NBA semifinals.
But, before we go into other interesting storylines, we don’t want to disappoint our old-school quant fact followers. We’ll still take a look at the numbers!
Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct almost 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s NBA Finals?
A Tale of Two Players (Leadership)
Before we get into our regular statistics, we want to take a closer look at several angles and storylines. Miami’s Jimmy Butler has been the talk of the playoffs — and he is even looking to leverage this year’s playoff run by trademarking his call-phrase Himmy Buckets (for use on drinks, clothing, etc.)! A scan of playoff leaders shows Jimmy Butler leading the entire league in many key and electifying statistics — such as 2-point field goals and steals.
On the other hand, Nikola Jokic, has quietly led the Denver Nuggets to an efficent 12-3 playoff record — if you can call a two-time NBA MVP (2021, 2022) quiet. This year, Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid won the MVP award, but Jokic still led the league in many key statistics including Win Shares, WS/48. etc. During the playoffs, Jokic leads the NBA in Win Shares — perhaps the most important statistic. Edge: Denver.
A Tale of Two Teams (& Seasons)
Most sports analysts and fans talk about the Miami Heat’s playoff run and how the team gelled — and came out of nowhere (especially based on their barely-greater-than-.500 record during the regular season). However, a closer look at advanced analytics shows that in some ways, Miami’s supporting cast for Jimmy Butler is at least in the same ballpark as Nikola Jokic’s!
One of our favorite stats is WS (Win Shares) — and a look at Basketball-Reference.com shows that Miami’s team — and supporting cast for Butler — is suprisingly better than their record would suggest. Indeed, their playoff record and playoff statistics show that the Heat is definitely a force to be reckoned with! Potential *Value* Edge: Miami.
And now, let’s look at some of our regular championship factors.
Consistency
Consistency helps athletes and teams get into a rhythm, especially during pressure-packed championships. Our articles focus on sports psychology and factors that help athletes win. In particular, we like to research factors that can be practiced and worked on — such as hard work and consistency.
Even with the three-point play gaining in importance, FG% is an indication of consistency and control of the game. Denver led the league in this category. Enough said. Edge: Denver.
Big Game Experience
Big game experience is associated with winning the big game. Teams and players who have “been there before” are more comfortable with the spotlight — translating to more titles. Miami made the finals three years ago and had other playoff runs in recent years. Edge: Miami.
Minimizing Errors
To win championships, athletes need to perform at a high level — while minimizing mistakes. Although teams are sometimes relatively close in terms of turnovers, this “quant fact” has been correct about two-thirds of the time for NBA championship series. This factor goes to the Heat, who edge the Nuggets in terms of fewer turnovers. Edge: Miami.
Defense
Our work supports the mantra that defense wins championships. Interestingly, the teams split certain key defensive statistics. For example, Miami beats Denver on points against, as well as certain team defensive analytics. On the other hand, Denver beats Miami in terms of opponent FG% — and especially in opponent 3-point FG%. No Edge.
Summary
The Denver Nuggets are overwhelming favorites (at about 75%) to win the NBA Title. Our Who Will Win articles have not seen such an overwhelming favorite in a championship in some time. If we had to pick, we would have to go with the numbers and say Denver will most likely win.
On the other hand, the quant facts clearly see value on Himmy Buckets’ Miami Heat — with many quant facts on Miami (and the quant facts about even!). We definitely went off-script in this Who Will Win article. As usual, there are several storylines in this Finals — and we look forward to a great series.
We DO like the greater than 3-1 odds on Miami — and especially some big point spreads. Enjoy the games!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying alternative investments, downside risk, and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has authored several books on sport psychology — appearing on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.