Georgia vs. TCU: Who Will Win The Big Game on 1/9/2023
Applying quant facts and sports psychology to the College Football National Championship game.
College football’s championship game features the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs against the TCU Horned Frogs (Texas Christian University). What do our championship factors say about this year’s title game?
Photo/Logo: NCAA.
Several years ago, I studied decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. The goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in the book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct almost 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s College Football Championship?
Defense
Perhaps a boring mantra, but our research shows that defense does indeed win championships. One exception was the NHL’s high-scoring Wayne Gretzky period, where offenses led the way for a short period. Last year, Georgia’s defense was considered “historically great.” This year’s team isn’t very far behind, yielding just 207 points (vs. last year’s 153 points against).
TCU has given up almost twice as many points (370), so Georgia takes this factor. Edge: Georgia.
Minimizing Errors — Leadership
In today’s high-scoring offenses in college football, the statistic that rises to the top of this “minimizing errors” category is “fewer interceptions thrown.” It makes sense that this comes from the most important position — and the leader of the team: the quarterback.
Teams with fewer interceptions during the season have won about two-thirds of championship games going back over several decades — in both college football and the NFL. Interestingly, TCU’s Max Duggan takes this championship factor for TCU. Duggan has made a name for himself, seemingly singlehandedly carrying his team to victory down the stretch. And he has done this while throwing 38 TDs vs. just 6 INTs. Edge: TCU.
Consistency
The consistency factor helps athletes and teams get into a groove, especially during pressure-packed title games. This is particularly true when the competition gets tougher. For college football, we apply the consistency factor to the running game — both on offense and defense. When on offense, Georgia averaged more per carry than Alabama, 5.5 yards per carry to 5.3. Edge: Georgia.
Consistency — Defense
In a similar manner, if teams can limit their opponent’s consistency on offense, it increases their chances of winning the big game. Georgia shines in this category, limiting opposition to just 3.0 yards per carry vs. 4.1 for TCU. Edge: Georgia.
Big Game Experience
Georgia is looking to be college football’s first repeat National Champion since Alabama in 2011-12. TCU continues the trend of programs challenging the old guard, but Georgia takes this championship factor. The numbers show that the team with recent big game experience has an edge in title games. Edge: Georgia.
Summary
The championship factors favor Georgia 4-1. The oddsmakers agree, with Georgia being favored by 12.5 points at the time of this writing. Our official quant fact prediction is on Georgia. And, the numbers make it look like TCU’s Cinderella story will come to an end in the title game (even against the spread). Enjoy the game!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.