The 2022 World Series: Who Will Win the Big Game?

We apply quant facts related to sports psychology to predict the winner of this year's World Series.

Photo credit: Erik Drost.

Who will win the 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies? More than ten years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct almost 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s World Series?

Leadership

Leadership is important in everything we study, and not only in sports predictions! Although we measure leadership differently in every sport, the themes are very similar. For instance, in football, the quarterback is a key position. In some sports, we seek out leadership in the form of top-scoring players — and for college hoops, we review All-American players.

For MLB, we use the top of each team’s pitching rotations. Houston’s staff includes Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, who combined for a strong 35 wins. The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler — but the edge goes to the Astros. Edge: Houston.

Minimizing Errors

To win championships, athletes and teams need to perform at a high level — while minimizing mistakes. Interestingly, although errors occur relatively infrequently — especially when compared to hits — a team’s fielding percentage rank in its respective league is an indicator of winning titles. This may be a result of lowering morale, or merely an “extra out” — but either way, the data shows this “quant fact” is correct in picking the World Series winner two-thirds of the time. Some will argue that the Phillies defense isn’t great, but the objective quant fact picks the Phillies. Both teams scored well in this area, but Philadelphia takes this championship factor. Edge: Philadelphia.

Big Game Experience

Big game experience is correlated to winning championships. Whether it is merely experience — or perhaps this experience brings a certain level of confidence — a team that possesses recent experience in the big game (in this case, World Series appearances over the past three years), gains an advantage in the expected probability of winning the championship. This is the fourth year that the Astros have reached the World Series over the past past six seasons. The Astros won the World Series in 2017, but lost in 2017 and 2021. Still, this edge goes to the Astros. Edge: Houston.

Consistency

When the level of competition is stronger — as it will be in a championship series — consistency helps athletes and teams get into a rhythm. That is, glitzy statistics like QB touchdowns in football, or HRs in MLB are not good predictors of success in championships.

On the other hand, consistency factors lead to championships in every sport we study. For baseball, team batting average is relevant. In today’s “power” game, home runs are a big influence during the regular season. Today’s focus on home runs has meant less focus on hitting for average.

Both the Phillies and Astros were near the top in their league batting average. Interestingly, although the Astros had a much better record than the Phillies, the Phillies take this consistency (batting average) factor due to their better league ranking. Edge: Philadelphia.

Summary

When the championship factors are tied (2-2) like they are this year, we sometimes go to a tiebreaker. However, with the Astros being a relatively strong favorite (almost 2-1 odds [or close to 67%] at the time of this writing), we will not make a quant fact prediction — but note that there is value on the Phillies. While the Astros had a much better season, the Phillies shine where it counts.

If you like value, take advantage of the promotions at various now-legal sportsbooks (in many states around the USA). In addition the sportsinvestingclub.com tracks value in major sports.

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Enjoy the games!

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.