Michigan vs. Washington: Who Will Win College Football's Big Game on 1/8/24?
Quant facts and sports psychology pick the winner
College football’s championship game features the Michigan Wolverines against the Washington Huskies. What do our quant facts say about this year’s title game?
Our championship factors are based on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. The goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in the book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct almost 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s College Football Championship?
Minimizing Errors — Leadership
Similar to other sports, the ability to “minimize errors” is an important factor. While you may say, “…but this is a single game” — “fewer interceptions thrown” is a key performance indicator in football that can predict the winner about two-thirds of the time. AND — it makes sense that this stat comes from the most important position — and the leader of the team: the quarterback.
Michigan threw just five INTs during the season, while ringing up the 14th best offense in the country. Edge: Michigan.
Consistency
The consistency factor helps athletes and teams get into a groove, especially during pressure-packed title games. This is particularly true when the competition gets tougher. For college football, we apply the consistency factor to the running game — both on offense and defense. When on offense, Washington edges Michigan in this category. Edge: Washington.
Consistency — Defense
In a similar manner, if teams can limit their opponent’s consistency on offense, it increases their chances of winning the big game. Michigan yielded just 3.0 yards per carry. This can potentially be a huge factor in this game. Edge: Michigan.
Big Game Experience
The numbers show that the team with recent big game experience has an edge in title games — across all sports studied. However, neither team has made the championship game in recent years (that has been dominated by teams like Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson). Edge: None.
Defense
The numbers do show that defense does indeed win championships. One exception was the NHL’s high-scoring Wayne Gretzky period, where offenses led the way for a short period. However, even with high flying offenses in both college and professional football, defense comes out on top more often than not. Michigan had one of the best defenses in the nation this year, yielding a measly 143 points. Edge: Michigan.
Summary
The championship factors favor Michigan 3-1. Although the sportsbooks agree, Michigan is a slight 4.5 point favorite at the time of this writing. Our official quant fact prediction is on Michigan. Enjoy the game!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.