Who Will Win the 2023 Stanley Cup?
Quant facts looks at the Finals matchup between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights
The Florida Panthers faceoff against the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2023 Stanley Cup Finals. Unlike this year’s NBA Finals, the NHL Finals is fairly even - with Vegas being a very slight favorite — at -125 odds — to win the series.
Before the season started, The Panthers were considered one of the frontrunners at about 9-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup. Although Vegas had several good seasons, they had a mediocre 2021-22 season and Vegas was listed at 18-1 to win it all during this year’s preseason. During the regular season, Florida underperformed a bit while Vegas regained the form that led to several deep playoff runs in recent years. In 2018, Vegas lost to the Washington Capitals in the finals. What do the quant facts say about this year’s champion?
Over the years, Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, and I have studied championship factors related to sports psychology to predict the winners of major championships. Much of our research has focused on quantifying concepts such as leadership, consistency, and minimizing errors.
These factors are often overlooked by sports fans and analysts. Our regular series of “Who Will Win” quant facts predictions have been correct about 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs! The results are based on championships going back several decades — and across major sports including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and professional tennis and golf. What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals?
Big Game Experience
Our book was entitled “Who Will Win the Big Game?” — partly because big game experience is a factor that has proven to be related to winning championships. However, neither team has played in the Finals in recent years. No Edge.
Leadership Between the Goalposts
A few year’s ago, our “Who Will Win” NHL article focused on hot goalies and skill vs. luck. Leadership is a sports psychology intangible that we have quantified as a significant factor in winning championships.
However, hockey is one of the sports where luck plays the largest role. Still, the numbers show that a hot goalie can get “in the zone” and help their team to a championship. This factor favors Vegas and their goalies’ higher save percentages. Edge: Vegas.
Leadership
When a championship is within reach, leaders can often lift his or her game — and that of his teammates. The team leader can sometimes will his or her way to victory. This was especially true during Wayne Gretzky’s high-scoring Edmonton Oilers years. Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk leads the way in this area. Edge: Florida.
Defense
The numbers show that “Defense does indeed win championships.” Defense is associated with hard-nosed, gritty work — and is more consistent than flashy offense. It is noteworthy that Florida was generally average during the regular season — but they have turned things around in the playoffs. Still, this defnensive factor goes to Vegas. Edge: Vegas.
Summary
Oddsmakers quote Vegas as a very slight favorite. With the series starting in Vegas, and with their defensive superiority, our quant facts like Vegas to win this year’s Stanley Cup. Enjoy the Finals!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying alternative investments, downside risk, and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the NBA’s Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has authored several books on sport psychology — appearing on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.